Paris Agreement Faces Challenges as Global Emissions Surge
When the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, it was seen as a historic deal to combat global warming. The agreement aimed to limit the increase in average global temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to keep them to 1.5°C. This focus on 1.5°C was a significant shift from previous agreements, which targeted a 2°C increase.
Small island nations played a crucial role in shaping the agreement by highlighting their concerns over rising sea levels. Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute, explained, “At 2°C, sea levels would become a major threat to small island states.” This concern led to the decision to prioritize the 1.5°C target.
However, despite the ambitious goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, the situation is not improving. The world’s climate has already warmed by 1.1°C since pre-industrial times, and the United Nations warns that emissions must be cut by 45% by 2030 to achieve the 1.5°C target. Unfortunately, based on current commitments, emissions are set to increase by 11% in 2030 compared to 2010 levels.
Asher Minns, executive director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, expressed concern over the gap between pledges and actions. “Current pledges take us to about 2.2°C of average global warming if everything is done,” Minns said. It is likely that the world will surpass the 1.5°C target, putting us at risk of the worst effects of climate change.
There are signs of progress in the form of a transition to renewable energy that will reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Global carbon emissions may peak this year due to investments in sectors like solar and wind power. However, the slow pace of action means we may need to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the future.
While efforts to limit temperature increases are crucial, we also need to prepare for the intensified effects of climate change. Rising sea levels, stronger storms, and extreme weather events will become more frequent and severe. It is essential to plan for worst-case scenarios and ensure that infrastructure is resilient to higher temperatures.
Furthermore, it is crucial to understand that climate change impacts will not only affect small island states but also many other countries. Increased risks of destabilizing ice sheets and water shortages are just a few of the potential consequences. No country is immune to the effects of climate change.
As the Cop28 summit approaches, there is a need for more than just promises and pledges. A fundamental shift in political and economic thinking is required to turn ambition into tangible action. Only through concerted global efforts can we hope to combat climate change effectively and mitigate its damaging impacts.
Is the world on track to limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.5°C?
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