Record Heatwave in 2022 May Have Caused Over 70,000 Deaths Across Europe, Study Finds
A devastating heatwave in 2022 may have led to more than 70,000 deaths across Europe, surpassing previous estimates of mortality associated with the record temperatures, a study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) has found.
The previous report, based on weekly temperature and mortality data in 823 regions in 35 European countries, acknowledged that the use of weekly data would be expected to underestimate heat-related mortality. The new study, published in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, aimed to correct the errors from the use of aggregated data, such as weekly and monthly temperatures.
According to data released in January, 2022 was the hottest year on record around the world. However, 2023 is expected to surpass that, with this year “near certain” to become the hottest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The study found that the models underestimated the effects of heat and cold as compared to the daily model. The actual number of deaths in 2022, estimated using the daily data model, was 70,066, and not 62,862 deaths as originally estimated.
Joan Ballester Claramunt, the ISGlobal researcher who leads the European Research Council’s EARLY-ADAPT project, said, “models based on weekly data do offer sufficient precision in mortality estimates to be useful in real-time practice in epidemiological surveillance and to inform public policies such as, for example, the activation of emergency plans for reducing the impact of heatwaves and cold spells.”
Ms. Claramunt suggested that the use of weekly data, which are easily accessible for Europe in real-time, can offer “a good approximation of the estimates obtained using the daily data model.”
The extraordinary temperatures were partly due to El Nino, as it continued to develop in the equatorial Pacific. In conclusion, the record heatwave in 2022 is a dire warning of the increasing impact of climate change on mortality and the urgent need for effective public policies to mitigate its effects.
Europe may have experienced 70,000 deaths as a result of the 2022 heatwave.
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